South African agriculture is heading into an expected El Niño with more resilience than the last time the pattern struck, a buffer built from an unusually prolonged run of favourable rainfall that has left soils, dams and grain stocks in better shape than typical pre-drought conditions.
Chief Economist Wandile Sihlobo at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz), said the likely impact of the expected El Niño on agriculture and consumer food price inflation in 2027 has dominated recent discussion, adding that the concern is understandable given forecasts continue to point toward a severe event. “Its arrival will coincide with South Africa’s 2026-27 summer crop season, which starts in mid-October,” said Sihlobo.
The starting position matters here. Sihlobo noted that South Africa has benefited from a prolonged La Niña that has supported the sector for several years, with rainfall periods running notably longer than typical. He said, “Importantly, the rainfall periods have also been much longer than the typical periods. For example, in the 2024-25 season, the summer rain continued through April 2025. This is longer than the typical summer rains, which normally end in March.” The pattern extended further still into the following season, with rain continuing through to May 2026.
Despite concerns that such extended rainfall might harm crop quality, the opposite has held true so far. “Ordinarily, such longer rainfall periods would raise concerns about crop quality. However, in the areas that harvested the 2025-26 crops, we haven’t seen many quality issues. In fact, the Crop Estimates Committee’s latest projections were revised higher and still point to a record summer crop harvest for 2025-26,” noted Sihlobo. That extended wet spell has left soil moisture and water tables in strong shape heading into planting. “When the planting period starts in October 2026, farmers across South Africa will have better-than-normal soil moisture to begin with. Therefore, there may be sufficient soil moisture to support seed germination and crop development across the country, even as El Niño conditions likely result in below-normal rainfall,” explained Sihlobo.
With roughly 20% of South African field crops under irrigation and the rest rainfed, outcomes will still hinge on soil moisture and rainfall timing through the 2026-27 season but livestock producers enter the cycle from reasonable footing too. “For the livestock industry, the grazing veld across the country is in a fair condition, having benefited from the longer rainy periods in the 2025-26 season,” said Sihlobo, cautioning that inflation forecasts built purely around El Niño risk may overlook these underlying fundamentals. He added, “While it is understandable that many people worry about the expected El Niño, forecasts of higher food price inflation may miss some of the fundamental issues that will shape the season ahead, such as improved soil moisture and available grain supplies. The drought is not ideal and may impose costs on farmers, but there are clear factors here that may shape this upcoming season more than the last droughts did.”
University of Pretoria’s Christiaan Moster at the Agricultural Economics Department offered a more cautious framing, treating El Niño as a genuine agricultural risk rather than an immediate food-security threat. “The latest international forecasts indicate that El Niño conditions are present and likely to strengthen into the 2026/27 summer rainfall period,” said Moster, noting that impacts vary sharply by region, drought in some production areas, excess rainfall or flooding in others. He flagged Southern Africa specifically as an elevated-risk zone, “with drought probabilities above 50% across parts of Namibia, Botswana and extending into South Africa and neighbouring countries.”
Mostert’s read on South Africa’s position balances exposure against real buffers, “For the coming South African planting season, my view is that the 2026/27 season is exposed but relatively well buffered. South Africa has useful buffers in the form of soil moisture, grazing conditions, dam levels and grain stocks. If the El Niño is severe and the summer rainfall areas experience poor follow-up rains, the pressure could build into 2027. The 2027/28 season could become more problematic if the current buffers are depleted and recovery rains are insufficient.”
University of South Africa (Unisa)’s Simphiwe Madikizela struck a similarly measured tone, tying genuine concern to persistence rather than a single season, “If El Niño happens for three years continuously, then the sector will start worrying; for now, there is no need for panic.” He pointed to the accumulated benefit of recent seasons as the reason for confidence heading into planting. He said, “We have had very good rains and a great harvest that will last us for the coming few years, so our next planting system will not be impacted as we have moist soil at the moment and in this winter, we got more rain than previously.” The consensus among all three experts is notably consistent, El Niño is real and worth monitoring closely but South Africa is entering this cycle from a position of accumulated strength rather than vulnerability, a buffer that could determine whether 2026-27 becomes a genuine food-security concern or simply a season requiring closer-than-usual attention.
